There are few bigger race days on the U.S. schedule than the Kentucky Derby. Every May, millions is wagered on the opening leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs, with all bettors aiming to find the winner.
It is a race that also captures the mainstream audience, with those that wouldn’t typically make a bet on the horse racing action putting their money down. However, for newcomers, it can be a daunting prospect to bet on racing, as it is a sport that experienced gamblers have followed for extended periods of time.
Making knowledgeable bets on the Derby is key for a beginner to ensure that they have a positive experience, but what are some of the key tips that can be followed to help pinpoint the most likely winner of the Triple Crown race?
Watch Prep Races
The Kentucky Derby field is made up by runners that have competed in the prep series, with top performers ensuring their place in the race at Churchill Downs. Betting odds for previous editions of the Derby have been adjusted following performances in key preps, as some races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby have a better history of finding the winner in Louisville.
You can find more information here: twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/results/
The most successful in history is the Florida Derby, which has produced 24 winners of the Kentucky Derby, in fact 15 winners of the race have been able to follow up at Churchill Downs.
The Wood Memorial is a historically good prep race, with 19 Derby winners having lined up in the Grade Two. However, recent history shows that no winner of the race has lined up in the Wood Memorial for over 20 years.
Other preps that have produced at least ten Derby winners include the Blue Grass Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. Poor prep races in terms of Derby winners include the Sunland Derby and the UAE Derby.
Explore The Market
Due to the size of the field in the Derby, it is no surprise that favourites have had a poor record in the Derby in recent years. Less than half of the favourites since 2009 have been the winner, while there have been huge priced outsiders to claim victory, including Mine That Bird at 50/1, Country House at 65/1 and Rich Strike at 80/1.
Therefore, there could be better value in assessing the betting markets available when making a selection. Place and Show betting are popular alternatives to newcomers, as both offer a layer of insurance, which could ensure that the chances of picking up returns are enhanced.
To land a place bet, your selected horse must finish in the first two positions, while a show bet covers the first three in the market. If you’re feeling lucky, Exacta and Trifecta bets are popular among experienced gamblers.
Here, you will need to correctly predict the horses that finish first and second, and first, second, and third, respectively.
Study the Jockey
While newcomers to the sport may simply believe that a jockey is there to sit on the horse, there is so much more to their job than that.
The rider will have a direct impact on the result of a race, meaning that it is likely that jockeys with proven experience at the highest level could make the difference when the pressure is at its highest.
John Velazquez is always a popular selection when making Derby picks, as the rider has three Derby wins to his name. Meanwhile, other previous winning riders in the race that will likely be involved in 2025 include Joel Rosario, Flavien Prat, and Florent Geroux.
It could also be worth noting that since 1980, 22 of the 31 winning jockeys have been aboard the same horse on its most recent prep race before lining up in the Derby.
Follow The Trends
If you’re a newcomer with limited experience of reading form, then one of the most interesting trends that could be worth following surrounds post position.
The draw could point to the most likely winner of the Derby, with some starting positions faring better than others. Stall seven has one of the best winning percentages in the history of the Derby, with 8.8% previous winners breaking from the stall. Stalls five, eight, and 18 also have high win percentages.
However, one stall that could be worth overlooking is 17, which is yet to produce a single winner of the Derby. Other stalls with low strike-rates include nine, eleven, and six.
Gamble Responsible
A key tip to remember when making bets on the Kentucky Derby is to gamble responsibly. It is important to only bet what you’re willing to lose, meaning putting aside a pot for betting is a solid strategy.
Once you have exceeded your budget for the day, it would be a good time to cut your losses, as chasing your money is one of the worst betting strategies when gambling on racing.
